Capital Markets Update -
Week 45

FMB / Fertilizer Week

• Europe MOP and SOP dip
• BPC, ICL sign Indian contracts with IPL
• Signs of demand growth in Indonesia
• 30-60 day outlook: More falls to come 

Analyst Research

Baader, Buy, TP EUR 19.00 (Old: Buy, TP EUR 19.00 )
Indian potash contract USD/t 10 lower yoy at USD/t 280 and therefore better than feared – China might agree at the same price – Demand should start to recover 

• As the market speculated on USD/t 10-20 yoy price cuts (according to FMB and ICIS) and therefore the “only” USD/t 10 price decline might be seen positively. With the Indian price set, we expect the Chinese contract at the same price (as it was the case for the 2019 contract). The new contract prices should stimulated potash demand which was in advance of the price negotiations weak and resulted in numerous short-term production cuts of many MOP producers (including K+S).
• Russian fertilizer giant Uralkali on Friday signed a muriate of potash (MOP) supply deal with Indian Potash Limited (IPL) for deliveries to India from October 2019 to 31 March 2020. The contract delivery price for the unspecified volume of MOP has not been disclosed, but the company’s trading arm says it has been “set at as per the market level”.
• The length of the contract is understood to have been agreed at six months, rather than a year, so that the next deal will match the Indian financial calendar. Other major suppliers of the popular crop nutrient, such as Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), Jordan’s Arab Potash Company (APC), and Germany’s K+S, will now likely follow Uralkali Trading's lead.
• While neither Uralkali nor IPL disclosed a price for the contract, there is unconfirmed talk the deal closed at USD/t 280 CFR (cost and freight), down USD/t 10 from the last contract, which ran from September 2018 to June 2019. Even after the conclusion of the contract, it will take one month for shipments to arrive at India’s ports, and then one to one-and-a-half months to reach inland warehouses. 

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