Our outlook for 2020
Development of forecasts for the whole year 2020
Expected earnings development, financial position and planned capital expenditure of K+S
| ACTUAL 2019 | Forecast in 2019 Annual Report | Forecast Q1/2020 | Forecast Q2/2020 | Forecast Q3/2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K+S Group | ||||||
| EBITDA1 | € million | 640.4 | 500 to 620 | around 520 before restructruring costs |
around 480 including restructuring costs |
around 480 including restructuring costs |
| – Operating unit Europe+ | € million | 437.0 | tangible decline to largely stable |
tangible decline | tangible decline | tangible decline |
| – Operating unit Americas | € million | 230.0 | slight to tangible decline |
moderate decline | slight decline | slight decline |
| Capital expenditure2 | € million | 493.3 | significant increase | significant increase | significant increase | significant increase |
| Consolidate earnings after tax, adjusted3 | € million | 77.8 | significant decline | significant decline | significant decline | strongly negative |
| Adjusted free cash flow | € million | 139.7 | approximately break even |
approximately break even |
approximately break even |
approximately break even |
| ROCE | % | 2.3 | significant decline | significant decline | significant decline | strongly negative |
| Average EUR/USD exchange rate after hedging | EUR/USD | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| Sales volumes Agriculture customer segment | million tonnes | 6.3 | over 7 | over 7 | over 7 | over 7 |
| Average price Agriculture customer segment | €/t | 272.4 | slight decline from Q4 2019 (€255 per tonne) |
slight increase from Q1 2020 (€239 per tonne) |
slight increase from Q2 2020 (€231 per tonne) |
slight increase from Q3 2020 (€225 per tonne) |
| Sales volumes Communities customer segment | million tonnes | 12.7 | 8 to 9 | around 8 | around 8 | around 8 |
1 EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted for depreciation and amortization of own work capitalized recognized directly in equity, gains/losses from fair value changes arising from operating anticipatory hedges still outstanding and changes in the fair value of operating anticipatory hedges recognized in prior periods.
2 Relates to cash payments for investments in property, plant, and equipment and intangible assets, excluding leases in accordance with IFRS 16.
3 The adjusted key indicators include gains/losses on operating anticipatory hedges in the respective reporting period, which eliminates effects from fluctuations in the market value of the hedges. In addition, related effects on deferred and current taxes are eliminated; tax rate for 2019: 30.0%.
Dividend policy
Our earnings-oriented dividend policy is generally reflected in a payout ratio of 40% to 50% of adjusted Group earnings after taxes. Against the backdrop of the global economic crisis triggered by the corona pandemic, the Board of Executive Directors and the Supervisory Board of K+S Aktiengesellschaft resolved on 8 May 2020 for reasons of prudence to adjust the dividend proposal for 2019 to the statutory minimum dividend of € 0.04 per share (previous dividend proposal € 0.15 per share).
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